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高油價凸顯煤化工和節能降耗機會
2008年國際原油均價在80美元/桶以上，高油價下，發展煤化工成為必然選擇。目前我國在煤炭資源儲量和煤化工技術儲備方面條件都已成熟，2008年煤化工將得到大力發展，預計2008年節能市場將面臨巨大發展機會。

煤化工成本優勢明顯

現階段，將煤炭轉化為石油下游產品在經濟上可行。煤炭的熱值價格、轉化為石油下游相同或相似產品的成本均大幅低于目前以石油為原料的成本。

從能源的等效熱值看，WTI原油單位熱值是我國無煙煤的1.57倍，如果原油價格為80美元/桶，按等效熱值測算的煤炭比價應為2763.9元/噸（按1桶=1/7.33噸，1美元7.40元人民幣測算），而目前國內無煙煤價格在800元/噸左右，單位熱值的價格優勢十分明顯。

即便考慮到煤炭氣化、液化以及轉化效率成本，目前煤炭的平衡油價成本也只在30美元/桶左右。如果大型煤氣化基地建在煤炭礦區附近，則煤化工成本會進一步下降。因此，只要油價能夠穩定在30美元/桶以上，煤化工均具有優勢。

發展煤化工時機成熟

我國煤炭儲量豐富，能源消費也基本以煤炭為主，因而存在發展煤化工的土壤。

從能源儲量結構上看，我國煤炭儲量豐富。國土資源部的數據顯示，截至2005年末，我國保有煤炭資源儲量共計10345億噸，其中儲量1895億噸，煤炭基礎儲量3356億噸，資源量6990億噸，僅次于美國和俄羅斯，而實際地質儲量可達45000億噸。按照目前開采速度，探明儲量可供開采約90年，未來新增探明儲量預計會高于開采速度，儲采比預計會維持在100年以上。

從技術層面看，目前我國除在煤直接液化領域的技術還略有欠缺外，在焦化和氣化領域的技術已經較為成熟，其中中小規模裝置的設備和技術國內已經完全可以滿足，大規模的設備和技術也正在突破。國內已有眾多焦化、氣化路線的生產線在穩定運行，其中不乏具備規模大、技術水平高的生產線。

綜合來看，我國大力發展煤化工的時機已較為成熟。

節能降耗帶來巨大市場

政府節能降耗工作的落實不僅影響到高能耗行業的格局，而且帶來巨大的節能相關市場。理論上測算，我國節能市場將在“十一五”期間達到1000至2000億元的規模；另據海外能源機構預測，中國將在2年后超過美國成為世界上*大的節能市場。

其中，化工行業能夠獲益的市場領域主要分布在建筑節能環節，特別是墻體保溫材料中聚氨酯硬泡、聚苯乙烯材料、節能門窗中的塑料型材市場較大。

資料顯示，在全社會能耗環節中，建筑在建造和使用兩個階段所耗用的能源已占社會總能耗的46%。隨著社會的發展，人們生活水平的提高，房屋需求量在增加，建筑使用能源量也在迅速增長，預計2020年在全社會能源消費比例中將上升到57%—75%。目前我國只有5%左右的建筑符合國家節能標準，該領域節能工作任務重大，市場容量也非常巨大。

聚氨酯應用拓展可期

由于建筑物與外界熱交換面積的70%左右是墻體，因此，采用高保溫墻體材料是提高建筑物保溫性能的關鍵。在所有在用的保溫材料中，聚氨酯材料是性能*好的保溫材料。目前國內MDI產量僅有10%應用于建筑市場，而國外這一比例達到70%-80%，因而聚氨酯產品具有較大的發展空間。

為推廣聚氨酯建筑物外墻保溫材料的應用，2007年5月19日，建設部正式下達關于印發《聚氨酯硬泡外墻外保溫工程技術導則》的通知，這標志著中國聚氨酯建筑節能的步伐正式走向正軌，同時預示著中國聚氨酯節能材料的需求有可能在未來幾年內得到迅猛發展。

我們認為能源價格居高將加快國家對節能降耗工作推進的力度，預計聚氨酯材料在建筑節能領域的推廣力度會較大，需求增長潛力巨大。


2008年是國內煤化工行業蓬勃發展的一年，和煤化工相關的企業會有一批新項目上馬，同時相關的設計院所和工程公司也會有較多業務，同時也會促進DCS、儀器儀表和相關傳動產品的市場發展。
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